BIG AL's BELMONT STAKES WINNER + EXACTA BOX WAGER -- Saturday
At 6:15 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on Animal Kingdom to win the Belmont Stakes, and we also have an Exacta Box wager on Animal Kingdom + Master of Hounds. Our recommendation is to put 6 units on Animal Kingdom to win, and to do a 2 unit exacta box on Animal Kingdom and Master of Hounds (i.e., $600 on Animal Kingdom to win; $200 on exacta of Animal Kingdom on top of Master of Hounds; and another $200 on exacta of Master of Hounds on top of Animal Kingdom)
There are two things you won't see this weekend in the Belmont Stakes: a Triple Crown Winner and the best three-year-old horse in the world. The latter title probably belongs to a freakish horse named for a deceased American trainer (Frankel) who is undefeated running in Europe and looking like a combination of Secretariat and Man-o-War in the process. Hopefully, we'll see Frankel over here in the Breeders Cup this fall. But that still leaves us with a horse that is clearly the best three-year-old racing in the USA by the name of Animal Kingdom. Not only has Animal Kingdom done very little wrong in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness, he's done virtually nothing wrong in any of his prior races and he has looked absolutely stunning in all of his workouts. If he had gotten a better start in the Preakness, then we almost certainly would be looking at a Triple Crown winner this weekend. The fact is that 20 or so years ago, Animal Kingdom would look like a very good three-year-old in a group of very good three-year-olds, but the crop of horses we've seen go forward in the triple crown races lately have been pretty weak and this year's crop is the weakest we've seen in some time. Animal Kingdom is a standout and no less than seven of his rivals on Saturday are horses he beat pretty soundly on the first Saturday in May (an eighth horse -- Isn't He Perfect -- ran poorly in the Preakness after not running in the Derby) and the ones that came back for a shot in Preakness he pretty much destroyed as well, except for Shackleford who got a dream trip that day. He will once again have the best jockey -- Johnny Velazquez -- on his back and you can bet that Johnny V will make sure this time he gets off to a better start than he did in the Preakness, and even if that happens again, he will have another 2 1/2 furlongs to make up for it in this race.
Looking at potential price horses to play with Animal Kingdom in the Exacta, it quickly becomes obvious which horses NOT to play with him. Shackleford and Nehru will not offer enough value in this race, and none of the horses that didn't compete in either the Derby or Preakness (of which there appears to be three) stand much of a chance of hitting board in the Belmont, so that brings us to roughly six horses. Of the six, the most intriguing is Master of Hounds, whose trainer opted to keep him in the U.S. and focus on this race rather than head back to Europe. Master of Hounds' Derby effort, in which he finished fifth, was not bad considering it was his first start on the dirt over here, and he is eligible to improve off of that one. You might get 10-1 on this horse, which would be a decent price, so an exacta box with him makes a lot of sense. The only other two to consider in the exacta with Animal Kingdom would be Brilliant Speed and Santiva, but Master of Hounds would be our choice for the exacta box. Take Animal Kingdom to win (6 units) and play him in the exacta with Master of Hounds (2 units on each combination, for a total of 4 units invested in the exacta). Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
At 6:15 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on Animal Kingdom to win the Belmont Stakes, and we also have an Exacta Box wager on Animal Kingdom + Master of Hounds. Our recommendation is to put 6 units on Animal Kingdom to win, and to do a 2 unit exacta box on Animal Kingdom and Master of Hounds (i.e., $600 on Animal Kingdom to win; $200 on exacta of Animal Kingdom on top of Master of Hounds; and another $200 on exacta of Master of Hounds on top of Animal Kingdom)
There are two things you won't see this weekend in the Belmont Stakes: a Triple Crown Winner and the best three-year-old horse in the world. The latter title probably belongs to a freakish horse named for a deceased American trainer (Frankel) who is undefeated running in Europe and looking like a combination of Secretariat and Man-o-War in the process. Hopefully, we'll see Frankel over here in the Breeders Cup this fall. But that still leaves us with a horse that is clearly the best three-year-old racing in the USA by the name of Animal Kingdom. Not only has Animal Kingdom done very little wrong in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness, he's done virtually nothing wrong in any of his prior races and he has looked absolutely stunning in all of his workouts. If he had gotten a better start in the Preakness, then we almost certainly would be looking at a Triple Crown winner this weekend. The fact is that 20 or so years ago, Animal Kingdom would look like a very good three-year-old in a group of very good three-year-olds, but the crop of horses we've seen go forward in the triple crown races lately have been pretty weak and this year's crop is the weakest we've seen in some time. Animal Kingdom is a standout and no less than seven of his rivals on Saturday are horses he beat pretty soundly on the first Saturday in May (an eighth horse -- Isn't He Perfect -- ran poorly in the Preakness after not running in the Derby) and the ones that came back for a shot in Preakness he pretty much destroyed as well, except for Shackleford who got a dream trip that day. He will once again have the best jockey -- Johnny Velazquez -- on his back and you can bet that Johnny V will make sure this time he gets off to a better start than he did in the Preakness, and even if that happens again, he will have another 2 1/2 furlongs to make up for it in this race.
Looking at potential price horses to play with Animal Kingdom in the Exacta, it quickly becomes obvious which horses NOT to play with him. Shackleford and Nehru will not offer enough value in this race, and none of the horses that didn't compete in either the Derby or Preakness (of which there appears to be three) stand much of a chance of hitting board in the Belmont, so that brings us to roughly six horses. Of the six, the most intriguing is Master of Hounds, whose trainer opted to keep him in the U.S. and focus on this race rather than head back to Europe. Master of Hounds' Derby effort, in which he finished fifth, was not bad considering it was his first start on the dirt over here, and he is eligible to improve off of that one. You might get 10-1 on this horse, which would be a decent price, so an exacta box with him makes a lot of sense. The only other two to consider in the exacta with Animal Kingdom would be Brilliant Speed and Santiva, but Master of Hounds would be our choice for the exacta box. Take Animal Kingdom to win (6 units) and play him in the exacta with Master of Hounds (2 units on each combination, for a total of 4 units invested in the exacta). Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
Belmont Stakes Odds: Six Betting Trends To Consider
By Doc Sports
The Belmont Trends
Needless to say, there are some strong trends that have emerged over the years that can help guide us towards the winners and away from the losers.
Here are six of the more interesting Belmont Stakes handicapping trends that could influence the outcome in 2011:
The Inside Posts Are Not Friendly
When a race is as long as this one, you wouldn’t think where you start really matters, but it appears to. Five of the last six winners have started in gate No. 7 or higher. Only two of the last 10 winners have started inside of that No. 7 hole, and those two, Summer Bird and Birdstone, were in the No. 4 spot.
It’s up to you to decide if this trend is established enough to be meaningful, but it certainly appears that the inside three spots are not the place to be. The average post position for winners in the last 16 years has been 7.1.
Long Shots Are Lovable
Favorites have not fared very well in the Belmont with just two having won in the last 15 years. That has left the door open for a lot of long shots. Lemon Drop Kid came home at 30-1 in 1999, and Commendable was 19-1 the next year. Sarava set a record in 2002 when he won at 70-1. Birdstone, the sire of Mine That Bird and 2009 Belmont winner Summer Bird, was 36-1 in 2004. Da’ Tara was an incredibly unlikely winner at 38-1 in 2008. That’s five very fat winners in 15 years.
Long shots stand a better-than-average chance in this race because horses are being asked to run much further than they have ever run before. Some horses just aren’t up to it while others really take to it. If you like a horse that goes off at a long price you shouldn’t be shy about it. Long shots are a lousy idea in the Preakness, but not here.
Fear The Iron Horse
The idea of a horse running in all three legs of the Triple Crown is a very romantic notion. Unfortunately, starting in both the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness has proven to be a lousy way to prepare for the Belmont recently.
Only one of the last nine winners of the Belmont, Afleet Alex in 2005, had previously started in the first two legs of the Triple Crown. Trainers have become more and more careful with their race selection and long layoffs between races have become the norm, so it just doesn’t seem like horses are up to the brutal challenge of three tough races in five weeks.
That doesn’t mean that you should not bet on Animal Kingdom, Shackleford or Mucho Macho Man. It just means you must be particularly confident in the choice before you do back them.
Triple Crown Experience Is Important, But Not As Important As It Used To Be
First the big picture: Thirteen of the last 17 Belmont winners had previously run in at least one of the two legs of the Triple Crown. That’s a solid trend. The problem, though, is that the strength of that trend has taken a big hit in recent years.
Three of the last four winners - Rags to Riches, Da’ Tara, and Drosselmeyer - were making their Triple Crown debut in the Belmont. There are a lot of horses in the Belmont Stakes field with Triple Crown experience this year, so there is a solid chance that the trend will get back on track.
Pay Attention To The Sires
Horses that win the Belmont tend to come from very impressive sires. Five of the last 10 winners of the race were sired by winners of Triple Crown races. Two more sires won the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Drosselmeyer was sired by Distorted Humor, the sire of, among many other great horses, dual Classic winner Funny Cide. The other two sires from among the last 10 were Northern Afleet and Seeking The Gold, both of which top sires with impressive pedigrees of their own. The breeding of these horses is a real determining factor in their success.
Jockey Experience Helps
As a general rule, the Belmont favors jockeys that both have a lot of experience on the unique track at Belmont, and who have had lots of success in the biggest races in the country. This is a very tactical race, so experience often pays off. If you look back at the winning jockeys over the last 25 years, it’s mostly like a roll call for the Hall of Fame.
It’s important to note, though, that some less experienced guys have broken through occasionally. In particular, the four-year stretch from 2005 to 2008 featured three winning riders - Jeremy Rose, Fernando Jara, and Alan Garcia - that were far from the most experienced in the race.
In fact, they all won the race in their first try and none of them had done great in other major races to a significant degree, either. Garcia rode long-shot Da’ Tara, so there is no explaining his win. Rose and Jara were both on very good horses, Afleet Alex and Jazil, respectively.
You could craft a general rule here, then: If you are going to bet on a jockey that isn’t among the elite then be very sure that the horse they’re on is a good one. Otherwise, stick with the best of the short men.
By Doc Sports
The Belmont Trends
Needless to say, there are some strong trends that have emerged over the years that can help guide us towards the winners and away from the losers.
Here are six of the more interesting Belmont Stakes handicapping trends that could influence the outcome in 2011:
The Inside Posts Are Not Friendly
When a race is as long as this one, you wouldn’t think where you start really matters, but it appears to. Five of the last six winners have started in gate No. 7 or higher. Only two of the last 10 winners have started inside of that No. 7 hole, and those two, Summer Bird and Birdstone, were in the No. 4 spot.
It’s up to you to decide if this trend is established enough to be meaningful, but it certainly appears that the inside three spots are not the place to be. The average post position for winners in the last 16 years has been 7.1.
Long Shots Are Lovable
Favorites have not fared very well in the Belmont with just two having won in the last 15 years. That has left the door open for a lot of long shots. Lemon Drop Kid came home at 30-1 in 1999, and Commendable was 19-1 the next year. Sarava set a record in 2002 when he won at 70-1. Birdstone, the sire of Mine That Bird and 2009 Belmont winner Summer Bird, was 36-1 in 2004. Da’ Tara was an incredibly unlikely winner at 38-1 in 2008. That’s five very fat winners in 15 years.
Long shots stand a better-than-average chance in this race because horses are being asked to run much further than they have ever run before. Some horses just aren’t up to it while others really take to it. If you like a horse that goes off at a long price you shouldn’t be shy about it. Long shots are a lousy idea in the Preakness, but not here.
Fear The Iron Horse
The idea of a horse running in all three legs of the Triple Crown is a very romantic notion. Unfortunately, starting in both the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness has proven to be a lousy way to prepare for the Belmont recently.
Only one of the last nine winners of the Belmont, Afleet Alex in 2005, had previously started in the first two legs of the Triple Crown. Trainers have become more and more careful with their race selection and long layoffs between races have become the norm, so it just doesn’t seem like horses are up to the brutal challenge of three tough races in five weeks.
That doesn’t mean that you should not bet on Animal Kingdom, Shackleford or Mucho Macho Man. It just means you must be particularly confident in the choice before you do back them.
Triple Crown Experience Is Important, But Not As Important As It Used To Be
First the big picture: Thirteen of the last 17 Belmont winners had previously run in at least one of the two legs of the Triple Crown. That’s a solid trend. The problem, though, is that the strength of that trend has taken a big hit in recent years.
Three of the last four winners - Rags to Riches, Da’ Tara, and Drosselmeyer - were making their Triple Crown debut in the Belmont. There are a lot of horses in the Belmont Stakes field with Triple Crown experience this year, so there is a solid chance that the trend will get back on track.
Pay Attention To The Sires
Horses that win the Belmont tend to come from very impressive sires. Five of the last 10 winners of the race were sired by winners of Triple Crown races. Two more sires won the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Drosselmeyer was sired by Distorted Humor, the sire of, among many other great horses, dual Classic winner Funny Cide. The other two sires from among the last 10 were Northern Afleet and Seeking The Gold, both of which top sires with impressive pedigrees of their own. The breeding of these horses is a real determining factor in their success.
Jockey Experience Helps
As a general rule, the Belmont favors jockeys that both have a lot of experience on the unique track at Belmont, and who have had lots of success in the biggest races in the country. This is a very tactical race, so experience often pays off. If you look back at the winning jockeys over the last 25 years, it’s mostly like a roll call for the Hall of Fame.
It’s important to note, though, that some less experienced guys have broken through occasionally. In particular, the four-year stretch from 2005 to 2008 featured three winning riders - Jeremy Rose, Fernando Jara, and Alan Garcia - that were far from the most experienced in the race.
In fact, they all won the race in their first try and none of them had done great in other major races to a significant degree, either. Garcia rode long-shot Da’ Tara, so there is no explaining his win. Rose and Jara were both on very good horses, Afleet Alex and Jazil, respectively.
You could craft a general rule here, then: If you are going to bet on a jockey that isn’t among the elite then be very sure that the horse they’re on is a good one. Otherwise, stick with the best of the short men.
FWIW...I was on Nehro in the Louisiana Derby (36-1) was on him at Arkansas Derby (9-1) was on him HUGE in Kentucky Derby (9-1) and I was there for that one. I love this horse in the Belmont. Everything sets up for him....just wish he was in the 7 hole but 6 is right there. Brilliant Speed I feel he will be in the mix. It's just his turn, thrilled me he didn't run in the Preakness....if we get 4-1 cash and grin, the same feeling I had leaving Churchill with the TRI and WPS on Nehro. He's well rested , closes from the clouds and has only ran one leg of the triple crown, great breeding and love the jock. Seems really easy. GL to all, just my 2 cents.
Pace Advantage
Shackleford (5-2)
Animal Kingdom (7-2)
Nehro (8-1)
Mucho Macho Man (11-1)
Santiva (15-1)
I can't wait for Saturday afternoon. It is so refreshing to feel such a buzz around a Belmont Stakes with no Triple Crown on the line. Somehow, they got the top seven finishers in the Kentucky Derby to show up Saturday, including the two big guns, Shackleford & Animal Kingdom, who are set to renew their rivalry on yet another grand stage. Aside from a TC on the line, it doesn't get any better than this.
With that said, can you believe the lack of respect my poor Shackleford is getting leading up to this race? How can you NOT love this horse? Figure-wise, he's been as fast and as consistent as they come over his last three races. He caught the worst of it in the Derby over a surface that clearly was biased against him. That theory was proven in the Preakness when he won the race despite going the first quarter in 22 and change. Read that fact again. Shackleford, the supposedly distance-challenged colt, ran head-to-head with Flashpoint through the first quarter in the Preakness in TWENTY TWO and THREE FIFTHS seconds and STILL had enough left to hold off the fast closing Animal Kingdom at the wire.
My friends, a distance-challenged horse does not win the 9.5 furlong Preakness Stakes after running the first quarter in 22 and change. It simply doesn't happen.
In fact, if you look at Shackleford's late pace numbers (I'm again using CJ's figures from PaceFigures.com), you'll see he stacks up quite nicely late with everyone except of course Animal Kingdom, who holds a definite advantage in that department.
But that edge will be severely tested given the HUGE PACE ADVANTAGE Shackleford figures to enjoy in the Belmont Stakes. There is, quite simply, NOBODY to run with this game-as-can-be colt. Running-style-wise, maybe Prime Cut will be the closest early on, but his actual early numbers are dismal when compared to Shackleford. I can't see anyone getting anywhere near Shack early. It's just not there on paper.
So, to me, whatever edge Animal Kingdom enjoys late will be almost completely erased by Shackleford's early pace advantage.
There is some rain in the forecast for the Belmont Stakes, but it should be noted that Shackleford is very well bred to take to an off track, and his speed should prove even more dangerous should the track come up wet.
It should also be noted that there may be some value elsewhere in the race. Both Mucho Macho Man and Santiva figure to go off at or above my value line of 11-1 and 15-1 respectively. But there is little doubt where the greatest value is going to lie Saturday afternoon, and that is with Shackleford.
I thought it couldn't get any easier than the Preakness. Three weeks ago I wrote: "I'm going to take a talented, speedy horse who has shown tenacity, at a very square price in today's Preakness." This Saturday afternoon, I can add "isolated on the front-end" to my list of advantages. If the early betting and the Brooklyn/Belmont Double will-pays are any indication, Shackleford is going to be the third or even the fourth choice in the betting when the gates spring open. Total insanity.
Shackleford, a gift that just keeps on giving.
BACK-TO-BACK SHACK ATTACK!
I can't wait for Saturday afternoon. It is so refreshing to feel such a buzz around a Belmont Stakes with no Triple Crown on the line. Somehow, they got the top seven finishers in the Kentucky Derby to show up Saturday, including the two big guns, Shackleford & Animal Kingdom, who are set to renew their rivalry on yet another grand stage. Aside from a TC on the line, it doesn't get any better than this.
With that said, can you believe the lack of respect my poor Shackleford is getting leading up to this race? How can you NOT love this horse? Figure-wise, he's been as fast and as consistent as they come over his last three races. He caught the worst of it in the Derby over a surface that clearly was biased against him. That theory was proven in the Preakness when he won the race despite going the first quarter in 22 and change. Read that fact again. Shackleford, the supposedly distance-challenged colt, ran head-to-head with Flashpoint through the first quarter in the Preakness in TWENTY TWO and THREE FIFTHS seconds and STILL had enough left to hold off the fast closing Animal Kingdom at the wire.
My friends, a distance-challenged horse does not win the 9.5 furlong Preakness Stakes after running the first quarter in 22 and change. It simply doesn't happen.
In fact, if you look at Shackleford's late pace numbers (I'm again using CJ's figures from PaceFigures.com), you'll see he stacks up quite nicely late with everyone except of course Animal Kingdom, who holds a definite advantage in that department.
But that edge will be severely tested given the HUGE PACE ADVANTAGE Shackleford figures to enjoy in the Belmont Stakes. There is, quite simply, NOBODY to run with this game-as-can-be colt. Running-style-wise, maybe Prime Cut will be the closest early on, but his actual early numbers are dismal when compared to Shackleford. I can't see anyone getting anywhere near Shack early. It's just not there on paper.
So, to me, whatever edge Animal Kingdom enjoys late will be almost completely erased by Shackleford's early pace advantage.
There is some rain in the forecast for the Belmont Stakes, but it should be noted that Shackleford is very well bred to take to an off track, and his speed should prove even more dangerous should the track come up wet.
It should also be noted that there may be some value elsewhere in the race. Both Mucho Macho Man and Santiva figure to go off at or above my value line of 11-1 and 15-1 respectively. But there is little doubt where the greatest value is going to lie Saturday afternoon, and that is with Shackleford.
I thought it couldn't get any easier than the Preakness. Three weeks ago I wrote: "I'm going to take a talented, speedy horse who has shown tenacity, at a very square price in today's Preakness." This Saturday afternoon, I can add "isolated on the front-end" to my list of advantages. If the early betting and the Brooklyn/Belmont Double will-pays are any indication, Shackleford is going to be the third or even the fourth choice in the betting when the gates spring open. Total insanity.
Shackleford, a gift that just keeps on giving.
BACK-TO-BACK SHACK ATTACK!
Ttratter: It is http://www.thesportsboss.com/Selections.html
